Iran, Israel and the Shadow War of the Middle East

Why Tehran and Jerusalem see each other as existential enemies in a regional system shaped by proxy wars, oil and power

By Adelio Debenedetti, author of The Naacal Protocol – Code 211

A conflict that rarely appears as a direct war

In global media, the confrontation between Iran and Israel is often portrayed as a sequence of isolated crises: missile exchanges, covert operations, assassinations, cyber attacks. Yet the real structure of the conflict is different. Iran and Israel are not fighting a conventional war.They are engaged in a regional shadow war, a confrontation fought through alliances, proxy forces and strategic influence across the Middle East. In this system, United States plays a central role.

Washington is Israel’s closest strategic partner and the main external pillar of the regional order that Tehran seeks to challenge. For this reason the real geopolitical equation is not simply Iran vs Israel. It is Iran vs a regional system aligned with the United States.

Tel Aviv represents the economic and technological heart of Israel, a country whose security doctrine is deeply shaped by regional tensions and the strategic rivalry with Iran.

A forgotten period: when Iran and Israel cooperated

One of the least remembered facts in Middle Eastern geopolitics is that Iran and Israel were not always enemies. Before the Iranian Revolution, the government of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi maintained discreet but significant relations with Israel. Both countries shared a common strategic concern: balancing hostile Arab powers during the Cold War. This cooperation included intelligence coordination and economic ties. The revolution of 1979 changed the entire equation.

With the rise of Ruhollah Khomeini, the newly established Islamic Republic of Iran adopted a radically different worldview. Israel was no longer a distant regional actor but a symbol of Western influence in the Middle East. From Tehran’s perspective, Israel became the forward strategic outpost of the United States in the region.

Two states born from different historical traumas

To understand the depth of the rivalry, one must consider the historical narratives that shape both countries. The state of Israel was established in 1948 in the aftermath of the Second World War and the Holocaust. Its political culture is deeply influenced by the imperative of survival in a hostile regional environment. Security doctrine therefore dominates Israeli strategic thinking.

Iran, by contrast, frames its modern political identity through the revolutionary rupture of 1979. The revolution presented itself not only as a national transformation but also as a rejection of Western political influence in the region. This ideological dimension merged with a much older element: Persian civilizational identity. The result was a state that sees itself both as a revolutionary actor and as a historical regional power.

The architecture of Iranian power

The Iranian political system is often misunderstood in Western analysis. While the country is formally governed by elected institutions, the true strategic backbone of the state lies in a complex network centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The IRGC—often referred to as the Revolutionary Guards—was created after the revolution to protect the ideological foundations of the regime. Over time it evolved into a powerful military, political and economic actor. Within this structure operates the Quds Force, responsible for Iran’s external operations across the region. Through this network Iran maintains strategic relationships with several non-state actors, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. These groups form the backbone of Tehran’s regional influence. This model allows Iran to project power without engaging in direct conventional war.

Iran and Israel stand at opposite ends of the Middle Eastern strategic system, where alliances, proxy forces and regional power dynamics shape a long shadow war.

The geography of proxy wars

The confrontation between Iran and Israel unfolds across several strategic theaters.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah represents Iran’s most powerful regional partner and a constant security concern for Israel. In Syria, Iranian military advisors and allied militias have supported the government of Bashar al‑Assad, helping maintain a corridor of influence stretching from Tehran to the Mediterranean. In Yemen, Iranian support for Houthi forces has intensified regional rivalry with Saudi Arabia, another key partner of the United States. Across these theaters Israel conducts regular covert operations, including airstrikes against Iranian positions, sabotage operations and cyber warfare. This network of actions forms the backbone of what analysts often describe as a Middle Eastern proxy war.

The strategic bond between Israel and the United States

Israel’s geopolitical position cannot be understood without considering its relationship with the United States. The alliance between the two countries functions as a strategic partnership with deep military, technological and diplomatic integration. For Washington, Israel represents a stable and technologically advanced partner in a volatile region. For Israel, American support provides security guarantees, advanced military capabilities and diplomatic backing in international institutions. This relationship is often described by analysts as resembling a strategic umbilical cord linking the two countries. From Iran’s perspective, this connection reinforces the perception that Israel is part of a broader Western system designed to contain Iranian influence.

Why Iran and Israel perceive each other as existential enemies

The hostility between Iran and Israel is therefore not simply ideological. It is structural.

Israel perceives Iran as a power attempting to encircle it through regional proxy networks.

Iran perceives Israel as the forward strategic base of a Western regional order designed to limit its autonomy. In geopolitical terms, both states interpret the other as a long-term strategic threat.

This mutual perception transforms rivalry into existential hostility.

Tehran, the political center of Iran, sits beneath the Alborz Mountains. From here the Iranian leadership projects influence across a regional network of alliances and proxy actors.

The economic dimension: oil and regional influence

Iran’s regional strategy is also tied to economic realities. Oil revenues provide the financial resources necessary to sustain military capabilities, regional alliances and strategic projects.

Energy exports help finance the institutions that maintain Iranian influence across the Middle East. But the relationship between oil and power in Iran is complex. If Iran lacked petroleum resources, its geopolitical role would certainly be more limited. Yet the country would still remain a significant regional actor due to its geography, population and strategic depth. Oil strengthens Iran’s reach—but it is not the sole source of Iranian power.

The confrontation between Iran and Israel cannot be reduced to ideological hostility or religious rivalry. It is a geopolitical conflict rooted in competing visions of regional order. Israel seeks security within a system closely linked to the United States.Iran seeks strategic autonomy and regional influence through a network of alliances and proxy forces. Between these two models lies the unstable landscape of the modern Middle East. And as long as both states perceive the other as a strategic threat, the shadow war between them is likely to continue.

This article is part of the Grey Zones Archive, a research project exploring the strategic spaces where geopolitics operates beyond official narratives. The narrative universe connected to these themes appears in the geopolitical thrillerThe Naacal Protocol – Code 211 by Adelio Debenedetti.

Next article in the series: Iran’s Asymmetric War Strategy: How Cheap Drones Challenge Western Military Power